Climate Tipping Points Workshop 2016

18th - 20th April, 2016. Dartington Hall, Devon, UK.

This workshop, which was hosted by Tim Lenton (University of Exeter), followed on from the Tipping Points meeting that was hosted by Marten Scheffer and Sebastian Bathiany in Amsterdam last year (2015).

The aim of the workshop was to:
  • to reflect on progress in the mathematics of tipping points,
  • to work towards the development of some joint paper(s), and
  • to link up with part of the new 'CRITICS' EU network of PhD students studying critical transitions.

Scientific Programme:

Monday 18th April

Opening talk: Three reasons to care about climate variability Marten Scheffer

Session: Past and future climate tipping points
A short history of tipping points and ice ages Michel Crucifix
Abrupt transitions in the glacial carbon cycle Victor Brovkin
Palaeoclimate transitions explored through delay equations Courtney Quinn

Session: New methods for understanding and detecting tipping points
Transfer operator approaches to critical transitions Henk Dijkstra
Detecting, anticipating and predicting critical transitions using data-driven dynamical modelling Frank Kwasniok
Interactions between noise and rate-induced tipping Paul Ritchie
Learning from Tipping Point Theory: Climate Variability and the Promise of an Emergent Constraint on Climate Sensitivity. Peter Cox

Session: Future climate tipping points
Abrupt changes in AMOC and Labrador Sea convection as simulated in CMIP5 climate change projections Sybren Drijhout
Impacts of THC shut down in a GCM Mark Williamson
On the possibility and prediction of rapid Arctic winter sea-ice loss Sebastian Bathiany

Tuesday 19th April

Session: Handling tipping points in the climate-economy system
Putting interacting stochastic tipping points in an integrated assessment model Tim Lenton
A decision theoretic framework for including tipping point early warning systems into adaptation and mitigation policy support Daniel Williamson
Assessing the value of climate tipping point early warning investments Chris  Boulton
Tripping into and jumping out of the Anthropocene Andrew Jarvis

What's missing? Review and discussion on the current mathematical theory of critical transitions and where to go from here.  
Parallel Sessions: 
    PhD student / Post Doc  led session Courtney Quinn
    Senior delegate led session Tim Lenton
Structured discussions – A walk and talk around the Dartington Estate. Groups
Discussion groups summarise activities / discussions

Concluding note Tim Lenton

 Climate Tipping Points Group Photo - April 2016.

This residential workshop was held at Dartington Hall, Devon. UK.

Photo credit to Dartington hall
Photo credit: Dartington